terça-feira, outubro 18, 2005

Dois fetiches na Ciência Econômica

Ezequiel Giacomolli

Caros colegas!

Existe algo que vem me preocupando bastante, e talvez o mesmo esteja acontecendo com muitos de vocês. A questão diz respeito aos atuais fetiches dos economistas. O primeiro deles é a MATEMÁTICA, sim ela mesmo, a matemática, que na minha opinião deveria ficar em letras minúsculas mesmo. O que me assusta é o fato de muitas pessoas, especialmente os alunos de Economia mais jovens (nós), estarem confundindo amplo uso de matemática com boa teoria econômica. Definitivamente, estas coisas não são sinônimos. Deixem que eu me explique. Cada vez mais, as pessoas que freqüentam escolas de economia, vem achando que para um trabalho ser sério ele deve ter muita matemática, o que é um equivoco muito grande!

Geralmente, questões inovadoras em diversas áreas da ciência aparecem de forma um tanto bruta e inacabada, e o fato da pouca formalização não significa que elas sejam irrelevantes. Muito pelo contrário, elas devem ser estudadas e a tentativa de formalização matemática considerada.

Continuando, existem coisas que são difíceis ou até mesmo impossíveis de serem expressadas em linguagem matemática, para o nosso azar pois a formalização nos permite ver e deduzir relações bastante complexas e que seriam bastante difíceis de serem processadas de forma sintética pelo nosso pensamento, e neste caso a matemática pode até ser prejudicial. Nestes casos, cujos exemplos julgo desnecessários, será de melhor acerto o uso da filosofia, sociologia, psicologia, biologia....

Um segundo equivoco, a ESTATÌSTICA. Como mencionei no início, muitos modelos pífios ganham destaque simplesmente pelo fato de usarem modelos matemáticos sofisticados, entretanto, ao testa-los com a realidade percebemos sua incapacidade de explicação e previsão (motivações de qualquer ciência). É neste momento, então, que entram em cena “os malabaristas da economia”, que utilizando-se de alguns ferramentais sofisticados torturam os dados da realidade afim de encaixa-los aos seus modelos, e neste ponto prefiro parafrasear Stigler para ser mais preciso: cuidado para não torturar os dados, pois neste caso eles dirão tudo que você quer ouvir.

18 Comments:

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11:36 PM  
Blogger Filipe Alves Ferreira said...

Olá,
Apreciei muito 2FnaCiEco.
Sou o autor da Economia a 4G : orientar dinheiro pode fazer-se em 1=consumo
2=poupança
3=investimento
e para 4G proponho Economia Post Moderna com 1, quarto gesto que baptizei : 4=datavalorizar

e tudo efectivamente sem grandes matemáticas, nem estatísticas alias sempre tao uteis

3:02 PM  
Anonymous Filipe Alves Ferreira said...

Este escrito e muito importante para mim.
Ele cont'em elementos relativos â enorme confusao que reina nos buscadores de remédios à Economia em vias de apodrecimento

3:10 PM  
Blogger Thomas H. Kang said...

Surpreendi-me lendo esse post. Não esperava essa posição do colega Ezequiel, uma vez que ele demonstra grande simpatia com o mainstream.
E, de fato, concordo com ele. Devemos usar matemática quando esta servir para explicar as coisas. Infelizmente, tem gente que considera a matemática algo divino, apenas a formalização garantiria a cientificidade da teoria. E não é assim. Mesmo economistas que eram exímios matemáticos como Marshall e Keynes já alertavam isso que o Ezequiel escreveu.
Não proponho o contrário também : abandonar a matemática. Ela realmente pode ser muito útil, assim como a Estatística, mas são FERRAMENTAS, apenas isso.

12:23 PM  
Anonymous rogério said...

Então, por tudo que foi colocado anteriormente, o caminho não seria voltar à economia política de Smith, Ricardo, Marx?
(como subsídio/sugestão cito a introdução do livro de Napoleoni, que tem esse título: Smith, Ricardo e Marx).Saudações

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